It's Sunday and other than the cough I am quite a bit better today. The internet as well seems to be working just peachy and I found that I now again have access to a few of my favorite blogs that had been blocked before. The formerly unavailable Frank J. at IMAO has taken up the dual tasks of providing both a Daily John Edwards Fabulous Fact [Make up was invented in order to give women a fighting chance to defeat John Edwards in a beauty pageant.] and a Daily Fred Thompson Fact [Many say that Fred Thompson is just an urban legend made up to scare liberals, but Harry Reid claims to have seen him.]. It's important to know these things and I thank him for his service.
(Frank also provides a timely heads up to an instant classic from Iowahawk with 'The Return of Inspector Dan Rather.')
I may have missed the Dengue Fever last week by 'that much,' but I'm feeling a touch of the Primary Fever coming on as we inch closer to the next President of the United States formally declaring his candidacy. The banner's over there on the sidebar, and remember, vote early and often.
The 'surge' in Baghdad seems to be going well (militarily if not PR-wise) and is being reported on by a few choice providers, most particularly Michael Yon, also with a banner link on the sidebar. For the next year or so we are going to be hearing more about these two events than even Paris Hilton on Larry King.
But the sore spot that seems to get rubbed the moment nobody's paying attention is in the Levant, the latest iteration of course being the expulsion by force of the Fatah Party from Gaza by Hamas.
Not that I have a dog in this fight. If the people with the "make their selves go-boom" habit want to self immolate 'before' having the opportunity to take more innocents with them, I say, "go with God." But…
Before I got sick this past week the thought occurred to me that this could be the beginning of the end game for the Palestinian Territory(ies). "This." of course being the current split in the not any more occupied except by Hamas territory of Gaza.
Before the kidnappings of Israeli soldiers and the ensuing war dashed it all last year, I tasted some hope as Palestinian President Abbas was expected to come forth with some kind of referendum on recognizing Israel's right to exist. I began to think seriously about what could be possible, but having never had to actually think ahead this far before, it struck hard how difficult it was going to be to have a Single-State Palestinian solution when the 'State' exists in two geographically isolated areas. Assuming even the best of intentions of all the parties, logistics simply rears its ugly head.
Tunnels, fences, trains, special trucks and permits for commercial goods traveling the corridor inviting all sorts of mischief, all these things played themselves out in my head, and they all would have required way more cooperation and trust than exists. I could see though, that once Abbas had the official 'magic key' of recognition in his hands the money and means would rush in from the West and Israel would be forced to cooperate with damned near any crazy scheme. It would still be a nightmare but the big 'taboo' would have been broken.
The extent to which Hamas has now shown it controls Gaza didn't even enter into my fantasy scenarios, but the new nightmare now seems to offer itself as its own solution. Consider the following:
The weakness of Abbas. As Bush, the EU-nicks and everybody else in the West come to his aid, they're never going to help him retake Gaza, and Hamas isn't just going to give it back. For better or worse he and the tattered remains of Gaza's Fatah constabulary now live in the West Bank for good. He may get some more arms from other Arabs toward that end- but not out in the open- and Israel won't be forced to let him use their airspace, nor will the Egyptians. He has to make a choice. I guess that he takes his half-a-loaf for the moment in a bid for his own 'peace prize.'
If Abbas decides to go down in history as the peacemaker (so as to put Arafat in his rightful place in history as a terrorist) that leaves Egypt holding the Gaza bag. A point not so well thought out perhaps by Hamas. If I'm not totally confusing my Brotherhood connections, Michael Totten calls Hamas the "Palestinian branch of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood," which is an officially outlawed group in Egypt, but presently tolerated for internal reasons.
But if the two groups make common cause to stir up trouble it could be the push that moves things in what is generally considered a festering Egyptian state. A move like that from Hamas wouldn't surprise me as these folks seem bent to behave 'hostage-wise' like Cleavon Little in Blazing Saddles. How the Egyptian Brotherhood responds will answer the question of how much violence occurs.
A dim or null response means Egypt will crush Hamas and Gaza become, for a certain time anyway, a de facto Egyptian province. A positive response means big problems for everyone as the Government would be forced to address its domestic Brotherhood problems. It wouldn't be pretty, and it could cause Mubarak to fall if he misses a step.
Keeping your eye on the ball in the Middle East is hard when everybody keeps shooting at it, and making any kind of prediction is a fool's game. It just appears to me that pieces have been subtly moved on the board, and Ms. Rice has been way too low-key for too long to forget about. This seemingly self-destructive move by the Palestinians could just be the thing that breaks the logjam and starts letting things sort out in a less inscrutable form.
Michael Totten has a more well informed take on recent events and how they seem to be playing with some other Arab regimes; and his 'blue eyes' banner link is always on the sidebar over there if you've read this far.
